Side Bets

The Tie bet is among the safest side bets in baccarat. Various approaches have been tried in developing a strategy to defeat the tie (see this post and this post). However, even using computer perfect play and a cut card placed at 7 cards, an AP who places a $100 wager on the Tie bet whenever he has the edge will only earn about $33 per shoe (0.33 units per shoe). It is unlikely any serious AP would try to defeat the Tie bet.

Side bets that pay out when the dealer busts were a hot area of development a few years back. I was involved with two of these bets as the primary mathematician for the game developers. One of the wagers I analyzed was Dealer Bust 21 (see this post). The other bust-type wager I analyzed was "Bet the Bust" (BTB) for the company Tech Art. BTB is the subject of this post.

The Royal Match (RM) wager is one of the oldest blackjack side bets still available. It pays if the player’s first two cards are the same suit. If the cards form the rare hand KQ suited, then there is a premium payout.  It is intuitively clear that there must be situations where the player has the edge. Quantifying the value that can be obtained through practical methods is where the work of the AP begins.

Back in 2003, when I was still a player, I advocated playing against the Lucky Ladies (LL) bet. Back then, there were a few great opportunities, particularly in Washington State. In early October, 2003, I stumbled on a variation of the LL concept on the tables at the Plaza casino in downtown Las Vegas. The new side bet I observed was called “Royal 20s” (R20).  The idea was similar to LL: the player was paid on any two-card 20.

When the patent on EZ Baccarat and its Dragon 7 side bet expired in September, 2013 (see this post), there was a bit of a land rush. Bally (Shuffle Master) was the first to get in, creating "Fortune Baccarat" with the Fortune 7 side bet. Others have followed. This post considers Dai Bacc, which is a new entry to the same intellectual property landscape.

Baccarat insurance is a side bet that players can make during the play of a hand of baccarat. This side bet is really an aggregate of sides bets, some of which can be made based on the first two cards exposed, and some of which can be made later during the play of the hand. Each of these side bets has its own separate wagering rules and payout. Michael Shackleford determined the house edge for the various insurance wagers in this article.

Card counting baccarat side bets is one of the strongest ongoing opportunities for advantage players. These opportunities arise from the intersection of four game protection deficiencies, none of which has a good solution. Consider:

The Upcard Luck (UL) blackjack side bet is a bit wacky to describe. Payouts are based on the dealer's up-card together with the two cards the player is dealt. In this sense, it is similar to both Lucky Lucky and 21 + 3. There would certainly be intellectual property issues if this bet made it big. Right now, though, it has very few placements.